Uranium Market Update | Justin Huhn and Jimmy Connor

Key Takeaways:

• Sulfur and the Strait of Hormuz: Huhn notes that something over 40% of the world's sulfur is exported through the Strait of Hormuz, and that Husab imports sulfur for its own acid production facility while Kazatomprom largely produces its own sulfuric acid and buys any shortfall from Russia. He argues that if sulfur imports to Namibia are disrupted for more than another two to four weeks, it will affect actual production at Husab and, to a lesser extent, Rössing; Langer Heinrich uses a different reagent and is unaffected.
• Kazatomprom's Eastward Shift: Kazatomprom produced roughly 25,500 tonnes, about 70 million pounds, in 2025, and Huhn says almost half of its attributable sales last year went to China, with perhaps a third of all pounds coming out of Kazakhstan on a 100% basis heading there annually. He points out that 100% of this year's production from the Budenovskoye 6 and 7 joint venture goes to Russia, moving to a 51/49 split next year, so the expected ~10% production increase does not reach Western buyers.
• Spot vs. Term Market: Term is reported at $90 a pound by both UxC and TradeTech on moderate but steady demand, including large contracts signed this year with India by both Kazatomprom and Cameco. Spot traded near $83 at the time of the interview after nearly half a billion dollars flowed into the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust in January, which has already bought close to 6 million pounds of its 9 million pound annual allotment; Huhn views the low $80s as a soft floor because the carry trade lets traders buy there and sell forward in the low $90s.
• French Life Extensions: France has given blanket design approval for its 900 MW and 1,300 MW reactors — about 95% of its fleet — to operate to 50 years, with 60 years under consideration, subject to individual reactor assessment. Huhn calculates that the 10-year extension alone represents almost 250 million pounds of demand, effectively consuming all of the life-of-mine production from NexGen Energy's Arrow project, which has yet to be built.
• US New Build and Policy: Of the $80–100 billion earmarked for new nuclear within the Japanese investment fund, Huhn says roughly $40 billion was allocated the prior day to GE Hitachi BWRX-300 SMRs in Alabama and Tennessee, and he expects a further AP1000 component consistent with the executive order target of 10 large reactors under construction by 2030. Against 45–50 million pounds of annual US consumption, he estimates domestic production at about 3 million pounds in 2025 and sees getting past 5 million pounds as a challenge, with Canada remaining the largest source of supply.
• NexGen's Timeline and Hyperscaler Interest: Huhn flags NexGen's stated 54-month construction period, implying 2031 ramp-up and 2032 first production — roughly three years later than guidance from 18 months ago — while utilities continue to model the feasibility study's 29 million pounds arriving on schedule. He describes management's disclosure of direct conversations with hyperscalers about project finance in exchange for an off-take as the most significant news of the year so far, citing Amazon's recent direct copper off-take with an Arizona producer as precedent for tech buyers competing with utilities for raw material.
• Equity Valuations: Huhn argues NexGen is roughly fairly valued at $80 uranium at its current $4.5–5 billion market capitalization, but that at $150–200 uranium with 15–20 million pounds of annual production and Patterson Corridor East in early development, a materially higher valuation is arguable. He expects Cameco and Orano to develop or acquire assets in the eastern Athabasca to feed the Key Lake and McClean Lake mills rather than pursue Arrow, and treats the 20–30% drawdowns that occur once or twice a year as buying opportunities so long as the multi-year bull market remains intact.