Uranium’s Supply Crunch Is Getting Worse — And Prices Could Go Much Higher

Key Takeaways:

• Supply Response: Huhn says direct mine supply has risen from 120-something million pounds to over 170 million pounds in about five years, almost all of it from restarted brownfield projects. He notes that price tripled over the same period and argues the industry now depends on new pounds because the inventory buffer that existed after Fukushima is gone.
• Fuel Cycle Bottleneck: Huhn says utilities focused on enrichment and conversion after 2022 to reduce exposure to Russia, and prices for both roughly tripled to all-time highs. He says UxC has identified uranium as the biggest bottleneck in the coming years, with global reactor capacity rising from roughly 400 GW to 500 GW in about five years.
• Term vs. Spot Market: Huhn puts the long-term price at $96.50 a pound, blended between UxC and TradeTech. He says most term contracts are market-referenced with floors in the $70 to $80 range and ceilings of $150 a pound. He describes spot as a surplus-disposal market of about four to five million pounds a month, linked to term through the carry trade, and argues that term signals matter more to investors.
• Constellation Uprates: Huhn calls the Google–Constellation deal bullish for the narrative but not for direct uranium demand. The capacity comes entirely from uprates across 11 reactors, with over $4 billion invested in steam generators, turbines, and other infrastructure. He argues the main benefit is de-risking the operating fleet, and that hyperscalers are securing “low-hanging fruit” before any new-build demand appears.
• China, Russia, and India: Huhn says roughly half of the reactors under construction globally are in China, which has 40-something under construction, and that Russia is building roughly 23 reactors abroad. He says India’s nuclear operator signed two contracts with Kazatomprom and Cameco totaling almost 50 million pounds, volume he believes exceeds what its existing fleet requires. He also cites the Strait of Hormuz closure as having highlighted energy sovereignty.
• 2026 Sentiment Reset: Huhn attributes the weak sentiment to January’s run, when the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust raised over half a billion dollars and bought six-plus million pounds in under two months, taking the price from about $80 to over $100 a pound. He says the subsequent pullback and a softer AI narrative drew institutional factor-basket money out of a small sector, and he regards buying into that kind of sentiment as a reliable strategy.
• Investment Positioning: Huhn calls physical uranium the best risk-reward, citing the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust at roughly an 8 to 9% discount to NAV and Yellow Cake plc, and he expects at least $150 to $200 a pound. He names GE Vernova’s BWRX300, TerraPower’s Natrium, and X-energy as leading SMR names, but favors established companies such as Constellation and Vistra for liquidity and says he models minimal SMR demand.