“This Is Unprecedented” — Terrible Uranium Sentiment, Cheap Stocks & a Major New Buyer | Justin Huhn

Key Takeaways:

• Supply Response: Huhn estimates annual mine supply has risen from about 125 million pounds in 2021 to roughly 175 million pounds this year, a 40% increase driven almost entirely by brownfield restarts such as McArthur River (18 million pounds a year) and Langer Heinrich. Over the same period the price tripled in both the term and spot markets, and he still models a deficit of more than 20 million pounds a year after secondary supply.
• Reactor Growth: Huhn cites UXC estimates that global nuclear capacity will grow from just over 400 GW to 500 GW within five years, largely through life extensions of the existing fleet and the grid connection of at least two-thirds of reactors now under construction. He notes the WNA’s upper scenario shows capacity more than doubling by 2040, while its reference scenario shows growth of about 75%.
• Russian Contract: Huhn highlights a long-term contract, announced in August, under which Russia will buy uranium from Kazatomprom. He says the contract exceeds 25% of Kazatomprom’s book value, which he estimates at north of 20 million pounds. He distinguishes it from equity offtake from a joint venture, calling it a contract that puts Russia in direct competition with Western utilities.
• Enrichment Implications: Huhn offers two possible explanations for Russia’s purchase: insufficient mine feed for its reactor buildout and export commitments, or dwindling enrichment capacity that forces centrifuges to run at higher tails assays. He says the second explanation rests on unverifiable industry whispers. Russia holds about 43% of global enrichment capacity, and he estimates its underfeeding has fallen from roughly 20 million pounds a year in the mid-2020s to under 10 million pounds.
• Price Outlook: Huhn calls $150–$200 per pound his base case, with anything higher requiring scarcity premiums or multiple buyers competing for limited supply. He points to $140–$160 ceilings in market-referenced contracts and to the roughly $96 term price, against an inflation-adjusted 2007 term peak he puts at $140–$150. He lists the NNSA’s planned purchases of 4 million pounds a year from 2030, sovereign stockpiling, SMRs, and hyperscaler entry as right-tail factors.
• Cameco Valuation: Huhn notes reports that Westinghouse could be taken public at a $50 billion valuation. Cameco paid $2.2 billion for 49% of the company, so he calculates its stake could equal about two-thirds of Cameco’s current market capitalization. On that math, he argues the market is valuing Cameco’s uranium and conversion businesses at roughly a third of its market cap.
• Equity Sentiment: Huhn describes sentiment in uranium equities as terrible and says that fading such sentiment has always worked in the time he has followed the market. He says his firm built cash in Q1, began deploying it over the summer, and added positions as recently as last week through a trading portfolio designed for intracycle swings. He argues that financially driven spot spikes tend to fade because utilities sit them out, while supply disruptions or a large hyperscaler offtake could produce more sustained moves.

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